Libyan Conflict Intel (go to bottom of page for downloads:
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by W. Alexander Hagen 
Please note excel and acrobat references are posted on bottom of this page
UPDATE: Detailed Analysis October 3,2011
The War That Wasn't - Please Note Political Map at Far Bottom of page
- 80% of the American Public surveyed are unaware that the US and NATO are bombing Libya.
The Vast Majority Of Americans for the first time in American History are largely unaware of the US Bombardment of another country in broad daylight. Americans have been unaware of secret programs, but the only military mission of this magnitude that might have registered such a low awareness was Kosovo and Serbia.
Please email your own poll results: We polled people since May 23,2011 around the Bay Area
May 20,2011:Excellent article about Libyan Civil War from Egyptian perspective. Egypt is to shortly become the central player in the middle east, from all indications.
Libyan Loyalist Force Capability: May 23,2011 update 2/3 of land forces, telecommunications and naval systems in the Gaddafi controlled areas have been destroyed by Nato Strikes, per Nato.
Man Power is probably 1/2 to 2/3 of the figures below, supplemented with conscripts, Primary Analyst Source: http://www.peopleforum.cn/viewthread.php?tid=74482&extra=page%3D1 March 3, 2011
Red Forces are Rebels, Green are Loyalists Berber Warrior 1885
 "The Libyan rebels in the sparsely populated Nafusa Mountains, who joined the anti-Gadhafi uprising almost immediately after it began in mid-February, seized Wazin from Gadhafi's forces last week and used it to restock their deserted towns and ferry injured fighters to Tunisian hospitals. The border post sits at a strategic point for Gadhafi, roughly halfway between his capital of Tripoli and the southern desert town of Ghadames, an important supply point for his forces.
The clashes ignited Thursday evening when pro-Gadhafi soldiers overran the rebels and briefly retook the border post. Rebel reinforcements quickly arrived and flushed out the Gadhafi fighters after dark Thursday, but sporadic fighting continued overnight in the dusty hills and valleys around Wazin. Best article "Tribes rise up against Gaddafi" - fr African PressAnalysis of the likely outcome of the revolt in Libya commencing February 17 2011, as of March 5 2011 0100 PST"This tribal landscape must be understood along with Libya's recent history: the country has not had political parties for more than four decades. Civil society does not exist, nor does the idea of loyalty to the "state". There is not a constitution, no nationally-accepted rule of law and no practical mechanisms to guide the country in the event of a power vacuum at the top. Col Qaddafi himself emphasizes the fact that he has neither "official role" nor "legally binding responsibility"." March 7, 2011 - EuroNews
 Akram al-Qarfalli, a senior member of the Warfalla tribe, on Feb. 20 announced it was withdrawing support from Qaddafi, saying “he is no longer a brother.” The Al-Zawiya tribe threatened to halt the flow of oil if Qaddafi doesn’t stop killing protesters. By Feb. 23 most tribes were united in their opposition, says former interior minister, Abdul Fattah Younis.
Libya's military: what does Gaddafi have left? 
Summary of best estimates March 2, 2011 Three Solid Brigades of high morale troops from tribes affiliated with the Forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi have recaptured a town in Libya's mostly rebel-held east, rebel military officers said on Wednesday, in an attempt to break the momentum of a popular rebellion against his 41-year-old rule. Forces sent by the Libyan leader had seized back Marsa El Brega after violent clashes with rebels who had controlled the town 800 km (500 miles) east of the captial Tripoli, the rebel officers told Reuters. "It's true. There was aerial bombardment of Brega and Gaddafi's forces have taken it," Mohamed Yousef, an officer in the town of Ajdabiyah which is about 75 km (47 miles) from Brega, told Reuters on Wednesday. So, what's the exact data of Gaddafi's military muscle? On paper, Libya's military has some 100,000 troops, more than 2,000 tanks, 374 aircraft and a navy and includes two patrol submarines. What Colonel Muammar Gaddafi actually has left to call on is a different matter. Here are some details of Libya's armed forces, officially totaling around 76,000 active personnel, plus a reserve or people's militia of some 40,000.  
GROUND FORCES - STRENGTH ON PAPER: Numbers: 50,000 including 25,000 conscripts. Main Battle Tanks - 2,205, including 180 T-90S and 200 T-62. The rest are in store. Reconnaissance vehicles - 120. Armored Infantry Fighting vehicles - 1,000. Armored personnel carriers - 945. Artillery pieces 2,421 (including 444 self-propelled, 647 towed). Mortars - 500. Air Defense surface-to-air missiles - at least 424. 
GROUND FORCES - REALITY: Even before the uprising, Libya's military strength was seen as having been seriously undermined by sanctions and neglect although Western powers had just began to sell it weapons again. Much of the equipment is seen as poorly maintained or unusable, leaving it hard to estimate genuine numbers. Analysts say Gaddafi tried to emasculate the regular army to avoid the emergence of commanders who might rival his immediate family, relying instead particularly on three loyal "regime protection" units often of his own tribe. That leaves him with what most estimate to be some 10-12,000 loyal Libyan troops. The most reliable formation is seen to be the 32nd Brigade commanded by Gaddafi's son Khamis. Repeated reports from witnesses, rights groups and others talk of African mercenaries flown in by Gaddafi to help strengthen his government. Exact numbers are impossible to obtain. But analysts say the opposition lacks much in the way of command and control or even any form of centralized leadership. So far, opposition units have focused primarily on defending territory and have shown little appetite to advance. That leaves loyalist forces trying to stem protest and perhaps regain lost territory in Libya's west around Tripoli. The key coastal city of Sirte between Tripoli and Benghazi is still under government control and the east effectively lost. But experts warn the situation remains fluid. "We underestimate the degree of loyalty in the security forces," warns Shashank Joshi, Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. "The defections appear to be patchwork and possibly along tribal lines. The units that matter, such as Khamis's 32nd Brigade, are holding together | Anti Government Libyan Force Capability:
 Current Rebel force estimates: May 23, 2011 : 8.000 - 12.000 men.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Gaddafi_forces Political Groups declaring independence or rebellion:
ANother source on Libya Tribes March 11, 2011 Gadhadhfa Tribe: Stronghold of the Regime's Head Libyan leader Mu`ammar Gaddafi descends from Gadhadhfa tribe, which dominates the security apparatuses and militias affiliated to the regime. The tribe, concentrated in Sirte and Sebha and widely present in Tripoli and Benghazi, is accused of taking part in firing on the protesters. There are reports of anti-Gaddafi demonstrations in the city of Sebha, from which the Libyan leader descends. Warfla Tribe Overturns the Balances Warfla, Libya's biggest tribe, with an estimated population of one million, declared on Sunday evening, February 20, its decision to join the protests against the regime. Warfla tribe is widely present in the cities of Bani Walid, Sirte, Tripoli, and Benghazi. Having joined the uprising, Warfla overturned the balances in favor of the revolution and is likely to accelerate the downfall of Gaddafi's regime, given the tribe's influence that derives from its large population and past history. The tribe had earlier engaged in an attempt to overthrow the regime of Gaddafi with the assistance of its sons among the army officers. Since then, they have been subject to killing, imprisonment and restriction. Observers assert that the stance of Gaddafi has greatly weakened since Warfla – which has widespread ethnic roots in all parts of Libya – joined the protests.
Tarhuna Tribe Joins the Revolution Like Warfla, Tarhuna tribe joined the anti-Gaddafi protests. With populations of nearly two million, Warfla and Tarhuna are the biggest tribes in Libya. Tarhuna descends from Hawara tribe that spreads from Taorga to Tripoli. Meanwhile, `Abdul-Hakim Abuzwida, a spokesman for Tarhuna tribe, stated that the leaders of his tribe, which represent one third of the population of the capital Tripoli, had declared their disavowal of the regime and the tribe's decision to join the revolution against the "dictator". The leaders of the tribe, of which are most army troops, sought to raise the awareness of the tribe's sons, especially the soldiers among them, about the history of their tribe and to warn them against being driven to the dissension plotted by the regime, which distributed weapons to many, and called for by Saif Al-Islam. Zawiya Tribe Threatens to Cut Oil Flow The tribe of Zawiya, located in Libya's southern oil regions, joined the revolutionaries and threatened to cut the flow of oil to Western countries unless the security forces stop firing on the demonstrators. Faragallah Zoy, one of the tribe's leaders, has said the tribe is giving a warning to Gaddafi, for a 24-hour period, to end the bloodshed and the suppression of the protesters; otherwise, the tribe will halt the flow of oil to Western countries. Tuareg Tribes Attack the Regime's Buildings Tuareg tribes joined the revolution and attacked buildings affiliated to the regime. Tuareg people, known as the blue men of the desert, live in southern Libya around Ghadames and in Ghat, Djanet, and Suhoul Adrar. Moreover, they have extensions in neighboring countries, notably Algeria, Niger, and Mali. Their men are known for their distinct clothes and veiled faces. Tuareg people are Sunni Muslims, following the Maliki school of thought. They have the same identity as North African populations, and they speak the Amazigh language in the Tuareg dialect. In a phone call with Al-Jazeera channel from Brussels, Akli Sheikha, from Tuareg tribes, stressed his tribes' support of those demanding the downfall of Gaddafi's regime. Zentan Tribe and the Power of the Army Zentan tribe was early to join the revolution. With the security brigades witnessing wide rifts, many of the tribe's members fought on the side of the revolutionaries against the mercenaries and some of Gaddafi's guards, who are waging a war on the people with light and heavy military weapons. Zentan is one of Libya's biggest Arab tribes, and it is located in the region of Nafusa Mountains. Bani Walid Tribe Raises the Banner of Disobedience The tribe of Bani Walid decided to withdraw its sons from the security brigades after information reached members of the tribe that Brigadier General `Abdulla Senoussi – Gaddafi's son-in-law, charged with maintaining control over Misrata – was using the tribe's sons in the security brigades, along with the mercenaries, to suppress the demonstrators in other cities. Families from Bani Walid contacted their sons among the soldiers and asked them to come back, if possible, and refrain from attacking any protester in Misrata or any other city. Upon the arrival of some buses that transported them to Misrata, they left their positions and joined the protesters. As for those still in Bani Walid, they also learned about the issue and as a result rebelled and fled their camp. It is known that the two cities of Misrata and Bani Walid are socially and administratively linked. `Obeidat Tribe Causes Rifts in the Security Forces The tribe of `Obeidat put pressure on its sons to quit the security forces loyal to the regime. Moreover, some reports emerged suggesting that Gen `Abdul-Fattah Younes Al-`Abidi, the Interior Minister, had broken away from Gaddafi following pressure by his tribe, `Obeidat, one of the biggest in Libya. In addition, it was reported that Gen Suleiman Mahmoud Al-`Obeidi had done the same, also after pressure by his tribe and a promise to forget all what he had done since September 1969 coup. As a partial result of the above, rifts grew within the ranks of the forces loyal to `Abdul-Salam Jaloud and they ultimately disintegrated. Maqarha Tribe and Its as yet Indecisive Position Some Libyans see a remaining hope in the possibility that Maqarha tribe in the western region – to which Gaddafi's loyalist `Abdul-Salam Gulod belongs – will join the revolt, giving rise to a quicker downfall of the regime. The tribe is expected to join the revolutionaries at any moment, as everyone is certain now that the revolution is on its way to success. Maqarha is deemed one of the most important tribes in Libya. Finally, as the major tribes in Libya shifted their positions in favor of the revolution, the other tribes may be driven to follow suit before long and decide their stances in support of this revolt. Col Mu`ammar Gaddafi is pursuing every possible means to deal with this unfolding situation, such as holding expanded meetings with the tribal leaders and asking them to help stop the protests. Yet, it seems that the Libyan popular uprising has reached the point of no return.  22/02/2011 By Abdulsattar Hatitah Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat – Libyan tribes played an important role in the country's fight against Ottoman, and later Italian, colonialism, with many Libyan tribal members sacrificing their lives in this war. It is believed that there are currently around 140 different tribes and clans in Libya, many of which have influences and members outside of the country, from Tunisia to Egypt to Chad. However Dr. Faraj Abdulaziz Najam, a Libyan specialist in Social Sciences and History, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Libyan tribes and clans that have genuine and demonstrable influence on the country number no more than 30 [tribes and family clans]. In a country that has lived under the brutal dictatorship of one man for more than forty years, namely Colonel Muammar Gaddafi –of the Gaddafi tribe – the majority of Libyans depend on their tribal connection in order to obtain their rights, and for protection, and even in order to find a job, particularly in the state apparatus. In a study conducted by Dr. Amal al-Obeidi at the University of Garyounis in Benghazi, it was revealed that the two largest and most influential Arab tribes in Libya originated from the Arab Peninsula, and these are the Beni Salim tribe that settled in Cyrenaica, the eastern coastal region of Libya, and the Beni Hilal that settled in western Libya around Tripoli. However other Libyan researchers and expert also revealed that around 15 percent of the Libyan population have no tribal affiliation whatsoever, being descendents of the Berber, Turkish, and other communities. The degree of political allegiance to the ruling regime in Tripoli varies from one tribe to the next, particularly over the forty years that Gaddafi has been in power. The tribe which has the strongest, and longest, ties to the Gaddafi region is the Magariha tribe, who which has yet to announce their position on the bloody demonstrations that have been taking place across the country for the past week. Former Libyan Prime Minister Abdessalam Jalloud, widely regarded as Gaddafi's right-hand man for much of his reign, is a member of the Magariha tribe. Gaddafi's own tribe, the Gaddafi tribe, had historically not been an important tribe in Libya prior to Colonel Gaddafi's ascent to power, and the Gaddafi tribe was not known for playing a major role in Libya's right against colonialism over the last 200 years. The leadership of the Magariha tribe acknowledges a debt of gratitude to Gaddafi and his regime for securing the return of one of the tribe's members, Abdel Baset al-Megrahi, from prison in Britain after he was convicted of being behind the Lockerbie bombing. However sources also told Asharq Al-Awsat that this has not prevented a number of youths of the Magariha tribe from participating – with members from other tribes – in the demonstrations and protests against Gaddafi's rule, especially in cities in eastern and southern Libya. Experts say that the Magariha tribe is in the best position to carry out a coup against the Libyan leader, as many members of this tribe are in sensitive and senior positions of the Libyan government and security services. Whilst the Zawiya tribe is also in a strong position, and has threatened to stop the flow of oil into western Libya unless the authorities stop their deadly crackdown against the Libyan protestors. Tribal influence in Libya is extremely important, particularly since the 1970s, with tribal affiliation being important with regards to obtaining employment in Libya's General People's Committees, as well as in the country's security apparatus. The largest and most influential tribe in eastern Libya is the Misurata tribe, which takes its name from the Misurata district in northwestern Libya. The tribe has particularly strong influence in the cities of Benghazi and Darneh. As for the Cyrenaica region, the most prominent tribe's in this area are the Kargala tribe, the Tawajeer tribe, and the Ramla tribe. However the Misurata region has, over the past 50 years, become divided between those who belong to the traditional tribes that follow traditional tribal pursuits, and those who have given up this lifestyle and live in the region's urban centers. Some of the more prominent tribes and families that have given up the Bedouin tribal culture in the Misurata region are: the el-Mahjoub clan, the Zamoura family, the Kawafi tribe, the Dababisa tribe, the Zawaiya tribe, the al-Sawalih tribe, and the al-Jarsha tribe. As for the Kawar tribe, this is comprised of many sub-tribes of Arab descent, with some analysts saying that this tribe – which takes its name from the Kaouar region – is made up of as many as 15 smaller tribes. The al-Awaqir tribe is centered in the Barqah region of Cyrenaica, and this tribe is well known for the prominent role that it played in the war against Ottoman and Italian colonialism. The al-Awaqir tribe
fighting against Italian colonialism, particularly during the first half of the twentieth century. As for the al-Mujabra tribe, this tribe has a strong presence south-west of Tripoli near the Al Jabal Al Gharbi district. Brigadier General Abu Bark Younis Jaber, Libyan head of the army, is also a prominent member of this tribe. The Libyan Farjan tribe is centered west of the city Ajdabiya, and members of this tribe can be found in most of Libya's costal cities, including Sirte, Zilten, and Tripoli. The Fizan district, and the area around Tripoli, is the home to the Zawiya tribe, the Warfala tribe, the Magariha tribe, and the Maslata tribe. The majority of people in the city of Tripoli are affiliated to the Masrata tribe, such as the Muntasir clan, the Suni family, the Qadi family, the al-Bashti family, and many other prominent families. Numbers: 8,000 including coast guard. Submarines - 2 patrol submarines. Surface combatants - 3 Patrol and coastal combatants - 14 NAVY - REALITY Libya's two surviving Foxtrot class diesel submarines were delivered by the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, but outside experts have long questioned their reliability. According to IHS Jane's, in 2003 one was reported to be in dry dock and one was sea going -- although unlikely to be fully operational. It suggested both might already have been abandoned. AIR FORCE - STRENGTH ON PAPER AIR FORCE - REALITY Analysts estimate many of Libya's fast jets are in fact no longer airworthy. Gaddafi has so far also lost at least three aircraft in the course of this uprising with two jets defecting to Malta and the crew of a third ejecting over the desert rather than bomb opposition targets as ordered. Occasional reports have also spoken of the use of helicopter gunships, fuelling calls for foreign powers to impose a no-fly zone.  OTHER FORCES:
There are also Air Defense Command forces which possess at least 216 surface-to-air missiles and 144 towed and 72 self propelled missiles. Again, maintenance may be an issue. Most analysts believe Libya's armed forces would not be able to seriously threaten outside air forces attempting to enforce a no-fly zone, saying Gaddafi's defense capabilities probably lag behind those of Iraq's Saddam Hussein before the US-led 2003 invasion. The BBC reported a British RAF Hercules transport aircraft evacuating foreign nationals came under small arms fire this week but was not seriously damaged. Some suggested the attack might have come from opposition forces who mistook the plane for one of Gaddafi's aircraft on a bombing raid. CHEMICAL WEAPONS: According to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), Libya destroyed its entire stockpile of chemical weapons munitions in early 2004 as part of a rapprochement with the West that also saw it abandon a nuclear program. The OPCW told Reuters Libya did retain some 9.5 tons of deadly mustard gas at a secret desert location but no longer had the capability to deliver it. Speaking to Qatar-based broadcaster Al Jazeera, Libya's former minister says beleaguered dictator may turn to the country's estimated 9.5 tons mustard gas stockpile. Libyan Leader Muammar Gadhafi may resort to using biological and chemical weapons as a last resort amid the country's escalating and violent unrest, Al Jazeera quoted a former Libyan minister as saying on Friday.Former justice minister Mustafa Abdel Galil told the broadcaster Al Jazeera that Gaddafi had those weapons and would not hesitate to use them against civilians."At the end when he's really pressured, he can do anything. I think Gadhafi will burn everything left behind him," he warned late Thursday. The regime is known to still possess substantial quantities of mustard gas. Gadhafi agreed in 2003 to dismantle Libya's nuclear and chemical weapons program, and has destroyed about 50% of its chemical weapons, but due to delays is still believed to have Mustard gas. |
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