Libya Conflict Analysis October 3, 2011

Libya Conflict Analysis Oct 3 : What will come next: Historical Factors & emerging power structures

Good Evening This is the OCT edition of Libya Conflict Analysis: I am Alexander Hagen, the CEO of a small medium sized tech firm in Silicon Valley, and a former network research engineer at a laboratory of a global telecom, as well as a former financial journalist and an armchair historian & Global Power Structures Analyst. The analysis I am doing uses at least two credible sources for each statement. They are not loosely researched opinions. They are double verified indisputable facts. I have spent 700 hours researching and publishing information regarding the Libya Conflict.

I cite as my primary historical reference “A History of Modern Libya: a series of interview by the real news with the chair of the Political Science dept at the University of New England. Professor Ali Ahmida, who is a friend of Jalil the most respected of the leaders in the Transitional National Council. This professor is not a supporter of Gadaffi’s Jamahiriya, but he does describe both sides. if you watch this 45 minute program in 3 parts you may learn a great deal

Additionally the writing of David Kirpatrick of the NY Times, Andrew Gilliam of the UK Telegraph and David McKenzie of CNN as well as Digital Journals Katerina Nicolas http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8754375/Gaddafis-ghost-town-after-the-loyalists-retreat.html

: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxbGEtLjYiE

CNN 17 JUNE 2011 Tripoli Libya - Uprising Anger - Large Gaddafi Rally

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/312235 And

Human Rights Watch reports Libya rebels torturing detainees

In order to determine what the possible outcomes are we must first look at History

No Arab Country has had organic parliamentary democracy. With 1 exception: Iran had an election in the 1950’s but the Socialist Mozadegh was elected, and the US and Britain organized a coup – installing Shah Reza Pahlavi, who was brought down in an uprising in 1979 as we all remember. The reformists and students and communists were quickly disappointed when Ayatollah Khomeini destroyed the democratic movement, installing a ruling council who had to approve any candidate before they could stand for election. The Students who were not religious zealots along with the reformists and communists were persecuted and tortured.

In 1913 – Italy invaded Libya under Fascist Italy of Benito Mussolini 1/3 of all Libyans died. They were put in concentration camps near Sirte and died in droves due to lack of clean water and food. Ironically this is what is happening today in Sirte. Except the city of Sirte is being attacked overhead by NATO dropping fragmentation bombs in a much more indiscriminate bombing than has been elsewhere credibly reported. People in Sirte, a city of between 75,000 and 125,000 could not even go the hospital due to the shelling by the TNC “rebels” and NATO bombardment. Children have been shredded and blown to bits. However after much international condemnation, the ICRC has been allowed into Sirte, the TNC thankfully stopped their blockade of humanitarian assistance for 2 days. Nato is claiming they will get out of Libya within a week or two, and leave the TNC to finish the job.

In reference to the Italian occupation of Libya, the most legendary of the early Libyans to conduct a guerilla hit and run campaign against the Italians was Omar Mukhtar who was hung by the Italians. To be fair King Idris was also a hero of the resistance.

In 1969 a group of 12 Libyan young officers staged a coup against King Idris, who was considered a corrupt monarchist puppet (who suspended Parliament in 1959) that favored the East, Benghazi and Cyrenaica – to the detriment of Tripolitania in the West a much more modern and populous region. This coup was very popular.

The young officers kicked the Western Powers out of Libya, freeing themselves of the yoke of colonialist domination, nationalizing their oil industry and embarking on a energetic campaign to build all of Libya’s infrastructure, although the East was often the last in line, though the whole country was built up. Education increased from a small fraction of the population to the majority and Gaddafi himself said his family would live in a tent until all Libyans had a home. Finally in the early 80s this was achieved and his parents were given a house. In 1975 the young officers council of 12 split evenly, with Gadaffi’s side prevailing. Gadaffi developed a very unusual political philosophy called Direct Democracy or the 3^rd International theory, wherein local councils were supposed to be able to have total control of their political affairs. He supported all liberation movements around the world, Nelson Mandela, the PLO, the IRA, freedom fighters and also armed revolutionaries including what we call terrorist groups but also some groups legititmately fighting corrupt and oppressive governments. This earned Libya a lot of enemies, as few of these groups actually did overthrow the governments they opposed. He invested heavily in Africa, and followed the Islamic tradition of providing zero interest loans, and beyond Islamic requirements often had them undated. In 1985 Reagan bombed Benghazi and Tripoli, Gadaffi allegedly retaliated by having a Pan Am Jet blown up, and severe sanctions followed, Libya was isolated.

After Bush’s invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, Gadaffi and his Government gave in to the West, and followed the Wests demand to liberalize, creating unemployment for the first time, and selling State Enterprises to International Corporations.

In 1995 a prison uprising occurred an 1200 Islamist Radicals were killed by the security forces, 1 in every 6,000 Libyans. It was the families of these martyrs that drove the protests of February 17.

The more populous and cosmopolitan West of Libya was favored, and many of the larger tribes were closely allied with Gaddafi two of these tribes alone comprised nearly 1/3 of Libya’s population. The People of the South of Libya who were predominantly Black, were also favored, with large investments in modernization made in Sabha, the chief city of Fezzan the southernmost state of Libya.

At the time of the rebellion, which was put down violently with around 400 killed, the Misurata tribe and the Obeidi tribes along with others opposed Gadaffi and still do. The Warfala also turned against Gadaffi. But most Libyans not active in the armed element of the rebellion, became sympathetic as NATO began its campaign of bombing, killing about half the young men and women serving in the Libyan armed forces around 15,000. The clan system of Libya would suppose that at least 10 people would sympathize with the Gadaffi government with the loss of a loved one. So we can assume at least 150,000 libyans had family members killed, causing these clans to rally around the Government.

In addition the largely false rumour of African Mercenaries fueled lynching of Black construction workers, alienating several hundred thousand Libyans. Additionally as the rebellions military wing were Jihadists that had fought NATO in Iraq, many women rallied around the Libyan Government, as women had equal rights in the Socialist Jamahiriya Gadaffi built. Technically Gadaffi resigned from Government in 1978, becoming a sort of national mentor instead. Of course most would say he actually tightly controlled the Government until the present day we can estimate that perhaps 10% of Libyans were women fearful of Jihadi Islamist Sharia law requiring them to get out of their pants and into Burkhas out of their universities to serve instead in the home. This would be around 600,000 women. Additionally 900,000 Libyans worked in the Government, and many of these were pro Gadaffi once NATO began bombing, not counted elsewhere we can say at least another 100,000.

The 2 largest tribes, many other tribes, the majority of Women and Blacks then could be said to have rallied around their leader as their former colonial masters armed the Jihadists to overthrow a secular, though repressive Government. The other wing of the effective fighting forces of the rebels were the Berber, a ancient people living South of the populous coast, in the Western Mountains also called the Nafusa mountains.

Looking at this constellation of factions and their allegiances it is clear that more Libyans supported Gadaffi’s Jamahiriya that the rebellion. I do not see how any decent researcher could come to any other conclusion. Additionally the rebels chief General Younnes was assassinated by the Jihadists for his role in the prison massacre of 1995, which has caused some effect on his tribe , the Obeidi of the far east, based in Tobruk.

Libya though a police state, had the highest standard of living and longevity in Africa and most of the middle east similar to Argentina or even Chile, due to its oil wealth. And as a police state it had a surprisingly low number of prisoners, only 10,000 as opposed to the US’s 2 million. About ¼ of our incarceration rate and 1/3 of our death rate generally.

The reason the rebels were successful was NATO’s complete obliteration of the Libyan Navy Air Force and Army. The invasion of Tripoli was spearheaded by Special forces of the NATO countries and Qataris , and the present military commander of Tripoli, Belhadj was a good friend of what we call Al Qaeda. Imagine 7,000 batteries of missiles and 2000 pounds dropped on the capital of your state for 5 months, followed by the rounding up of anyone who supported your government and imprisonment of them, and attacks on ethnic groups including their killing fueled by propaganda only a Herr Goebells could have concocted.

As we used to say during the cold war he might be a son of a bitch but he’s our son of a bitch.

The NATO countries media outlets have suddenly discovered that some Islamist are good guys ready to embrace democracy. This about face would never have happened if the Jihadi had opposed this extremely muscular display of firepower.

It is in fact astonishing that even with the combined might of all the allied powers air forces and navies and special forces, the Loyalists are still fighting on at least a dozen fronts, and hold two provincial capitals and one governorate capital.

Libya under the TNC has conducted mass arrests of those suspected of opposing them, and there are now more political prisoners in prison in Libya, more than 10,000 than Libya previously had prisoners total, most of which were common criminals.

These suspected loyalists are being tortured.

Instead of thinking we killed.

In terms of alienating Libyans it makes no difference whether the majority of people killed by NATO were civilians or not. They had children siblings nephews nieces aunts grandparents clan members etc who had lost loved ones.

It is therefore obvious that the TNC government will be in a civil war for years. Libyans are not the type of people to forget these atrocities. If the killing 1200 in 1995 formed the basis for the rebellion, what will the killing lynching mistreatment of women loyalists government employees numbering into the hundreds of thousands do?

Instead of thinking we arrogantly exerted every violent and illegal act imaginable against Gadaffi who had insulted the despots of the Arabian Peninsula, as well as the Western former colonial powers by nationalizing their oil companies in 1969.

If the goal was to destabilize Africa and shatter the psychic health of Libyan families through driving enormous wedges between groups then we have succeeded in Libya.

The TNC will begin at some point to provide patronage to some of these alienated groups or they will create a police state. Much worse than Gadaffi’s as they are publicly stating they will punish anyone who formerly supported Gadaffi. Of course they do not say this in the intl press. But loyalists realize they must stay very quiet or risk arrest or even execution or torture.

It is a witch hunt – except it is a witch hunt for all members of one side of a conflict which though initially unknown as to its level of support, certainly several large cities and tribes, became a civil war due to foreign intervention

My main reference’s proving that the loyalists are being arrested harassed silenced lynched and ethnically cleansed in the city of Tawargha at any rate are the NY Times and the UK Telegraph.

I would like to close by saying I have spent at least 600 hours researching and attempting to raise my voice and let the world know that although I supported the rebellion at first, seeing at as part of the Arab Spring, the more the media ignored so many important factors, claiming that NATO destroying the Libyan Armed Forces and introducing Special Forces on the ground – were legal and in fact warranted – when all of this escalation of warfare would guarantee feuds lasting years – and a horrible psychological scar – all because of the drumbeat of self-congratulation in this orgy of violence. Gross exagerations of war crimes largely disproved on the side of the Loyalists – who were being murdered by the bushel, and whitewashing and minimization of lynching of blacks, Americas current foes in the war on terror being trained and armed by the west to overthrow a secular government. The media seems an instrument of US warfare. The UN resolution that we ourselves drafted one would assume would be a obligation that we swore to uphold – to obtain a ceasefire and use the African Union to negotiate peace. By insisting Gadaffi had to go – we created a logical absurdity. How can one talk to someone who is not there. It is as if a wager was made by the Western leaders over how many legal and moral violations they could commit with impunity. And how can a country with a poverty rate near 20%, a crushing debt largely from military expenditures a suspension of its bill of rights through a patriot act – whos very interpretation is classified, and who was ruled that any American can be assassinated without trial in the interests of National Security – speak of a small country’s ruler having lost his moral authority – we abdicated ours in October of 2001.

Congressman Dennis Kucinich and many others have called the NATO activities “International Gangsterism”

With 5% of the world’s population we have 25% of the world’s prisoners, 33% of the world’s ex-felons 47% of the world’s military spending and that 1/6 of our economy is now military and national security related 400% what it was prior to the cold war – we see a behemoth armed to the teeth – a soft dictatorship – which an unscrupulous leader could trigger into something akin to Nazi-ism. So for the moment I ask you to consider the Libyan Jamahiriya however wrong-headed – as a culture we have chosen to destroy – and Churchill’s remarks about the unprovoked invasion of France remind me of what is now happening to Libya. I wonder what Churchill would think of Britain bullying a small weak country using a campaign of aerial terror – after England was subjected to the same – and that as NATO realized that they could not hide or as Bush said misunderestimated the level of resistance to the attack on the standing Government by the very colonial powers who held her in bondage in some ways until 1969 –they have now allowed a ruthless campaign of reprisal by Jihadists – our sworn enemies now Orwellian Allies.

Listen to Churchill’s words about Hitler’s attempt to erase French culture completely. And realize the Western Powers would very much like to do this over and over – claiming Libya would make a “template” for future operations – and a very hawkish new state department official is being appointed to look at Cuba Venezuela Bolivia and any country not under our sway.

Winston Churchill said “Hitler’s method I must remind you is to get one country shut up with him alone!”

On the complete annihilation of a small countries armed forces and government he had this to say.

<Play tape>

Dieu Protégé Libyan

I have worked as hard as I can for five months to expose the hypocrisy mendacity and downright incompetence of those in charge of this policy. Once our country re-establishes sensible leadership that does not trample on its people rights and prosperity – those who have commited these acts of patricide should face trial – and receive the sentence others received for unprovoked naked invasion of a small weak country. How can we congratulate ourselves when we outnumber these people militarily 500 to 1.

None of the statements I have made are not based on multiple credible references.

The Government of Libya was founded in 1969

The country prior to the uprising was broken down along the following lines

1. Certain Tribes had stronger ties to the L