Libyan Conflict Intel

American Lack Of Awareness

Disinformation by Gallup, Rasmussen and Western opinion poll organizations - fail to disclose audience is usually unaware of the Libya conflict. Posing the question " do you support the mission in Libya" - people will simply answer -regardless of knowledge - which is highly distortive in failing to disclose - that awareness is not polled - and not disclosed.

These polls conducted June 2011

Small Bay Area Poll on whether residents are aware of Libya conflict shows:

- 80% of the American Public surveyed are unaware that the US and NATO are bombing Libya.

The Vast Majority Of Americans for the first time in American History are largely unaware of the US Bombardment of another country in broad daylight. Americans have been unaware of secret programs, but the only military mission of this magnitude that might have registered such a low awareness was Kosovo and Serbia.

attempt to oust the Libyan Government from power, or even of the bombardment of Libya./

Please email your own poll results: We polled people since May 23,2011 around the Bay Area

May 20,2011:

Al-Ahram Weekly | Region | Libya is headed for hell-hole

Excellent article about Libyan Civil War from Egyptian perspective. Egypt is to shortly become the central player in the middle east, from all indications.

I reprint it on this website here:

Libyan Loyalist Force Capability:

Anti Government Libyan Force Capability:

• • • • • • • • • Libya News Analysis: September 3, 2011

                • Libya News And Analysis : June 26.2011

                • Voices for and against Libya Intervention

                • Analysis: June 16,2011

• • • • • • • • Author's Opinion June 6, 2011: My research, started without any sympathy for the Loyalists has now gone I wouldnt say 180, but at least 90. Kucinich laid it out June 4, 2011 on MSNBC. I have learned enough now that I have withdrawn my support for the rebels. Check Out HR51 The Kucinich resolution to withdraw all troops in 15 days. I also have been given a tip by someone credible that there may have been Israeli involvement, and incredibly Gaddafi was not lying when he said El Qaeda was involved. This story is incredible - and the cynicism of the British, French and Americans is staggering. As Churchill said, the neutrals will shudder wondering which of them is to be "liberated" next.

• • • • • • • Author's Opinion May 23, 2011: I support the Libyan rebellion, but I do not support wanton destruction - and dark similarities to Iraq.

            • illegal bombing by NATO. Immediate elections are possible with no further bloodshed - the rebels will win - and the loyalists can form a minority party. Those guilty of war crimes should first be prosecuted in Libya, once elections are completed. The International Court complaint should be satisfied by this.

            • Legality of Regime Change under UN Resolution 1973

            • Authors Libya blog

            • May 31, 2011: Pittsburgh Gazette:

            • Former US Ambassador who lived in Libya says

            • "Shame on us for pulverizing Libya."

            • Citizen Reporter from UK interviews people in Loyalist Libya

            • Just as the US intervened allegedly on principle to not stand by while "a tyrant massacres his own people, so to Gaddafi will fiercely resist on the principle of non interference in the affairs of another country.

            • Possible Outcomes:

            • 1. Rebel Victory - tainted by NATO involvement

            • 2. Rebel Victory - with broad popular support

            • 3. Partition

            • 4. Negotiatied ceased fire followed by plebescite etc

            • 5. Current Govt of Libya crushes rebellion.

            • Questions:

            • 1. Libya had a very high standard of living compared to other african and middle eastern countries, with women allowed to participate in all professions. Yet Gaddafi is allegedly a brutal dictator.

            • So How did the Libyan People Feel about their Government BEFORE THE CONFLICT?

            • Well it happens there is a 2010 Gallup Poll that may answer: How Were the Libyan People faring in Gaddafi's Libya:

            • ===================================

              • • GALLUP POLL OF LIBYANS FROM LATE 2010 ABOUT HOW HAPPY AND SATISFIED THEY ARE

                • Residents in Benghazi less satisfied than Tripoli residents

                • WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup surveys in Libya's two largest cities -- part of a wider effort -- offer a glimpse into the lives of Tripoli and Benghazi residents before protests erupted. Wellbeing was low in each city in late 2010, but residents of Benghazi, the epicenter of the demonstrations, were less satisfied than Tripoli residents in two areas: the freedom to choose what they do with their lives and efforts to create good jobs.

May 23,2011 update 2/3 of land forces, telecommunications and naval systems in the Gaddafi controlled areas have been destroyed by Nato Strikes, per Nato.

Man Power is probably 1/2 to 2/3 of the figures below, supplemented with conscripts,

Primary Analyst Source: http://www.peopleforum.cn/viewthread.php?tid=74482&extra=page%3D1 March 3, 2011

Red Forces are Rebels, Green are Loyalists

Berber Warrior 1885

"The Libyan rebels in the sparsely populated Nafusa Mountains, who joined the anti-Gadhafi uprising almost immediately after it began in mid-February, seized Wazin from Gadhafi's forces last week and used it to restock their deserted towns and ferry injured fighters to Tunisian hospitals. The border post sits at a strategic point for Gadhafi, roughly halfway between his capital of Tripoli and the southern desert town of Ghadames, an important supply point for his forces.

The clashes ignited Thursday evening when pro-Gadhafi soldiers overran the rebels and briefly retook the border post. Rebel reinforcements quickly arrived and flushed out the Gadhafi fighters after dark Thursday, but sporadic fighting continued overnight in the dusty hills and valleys around Wazin.

Best article "Tribes rise up against Gaddafi" - fr African Press

Analysis of the likely outcome of the revolt in Libya commencing February 17 2011, as of March 5 2011 0100 PST

"This tribal landscape must be understood along with Libya's recent history: the country has not had political parties for more than four decades. Civil society does not exist, nor does the idea of loyalty to the "state". There is not a constitution, no nationally-accepted rule of law and no practical mechanisms to guide the country in the event of a power vacuum at the top. Col Qaddafi himself emphasizes the fact that he has neither "official role" nor "legally binding responsibility"."

March 7, 2011 - EuroNews

Akram al-Qarfalli, a senior member of the Warfalla tribe, on Feb. 20 announced it was withdrawing support from Qaddafi, saying “he is no longer a brother.” The Al-Zawiya tribe threatened to halt the flow of oil if Qaddafi doesn’t stop killing protesters. By Feb. 23 most tribes were united in their opposition, says former interior minister, Abdul Fattah Younis.

“The tribes are powerful, especially outside urban centers,” said Charles Gurdon, a Libya analyst and managing director of the London-based Menas Associates political risk consulting firm, in a phone interview. “The fact the majority of them are now opposed to Qaddafi is probably the last nail in the coffin.”

Libya's biggest tribe, the Warfala, has switched sides to back the anti-government revolutionary groups. They are one million strong and dominant in the northern cities of Bani Walid, Tripoli and Benghazi. The Tarhuna, also nearly one million strong with around 350,000 followers in Tripoli, have followed suit.

Other significant tribes to have defected include the Zawiya, who have threatened to cut the flow of oil to Western countries unless the regime crackdown stops; the Zentan tribe; the Bani Walid; and the Obeidat tribe of Abdul-Fatah Younis, the former interior minister who sensationally defected and maintains he has proof that Gaddafi ordered the Lockerbie Bombing.

Libyan Tribal Map: Network of loyalties that will determine Gaddafi's fate

22/02/2011

By Abdulsattar Hatitah

Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat – Libyan tribes played an important role in the country's fight against Ottoman, and later Italian, colonialism, with

many Libyan tribal members sacrificing their lives in this war. It is believed that there are currently around 140 different tribes and clans in Libya, many of which have influences and members outside of the country, from Tunisia to Egypt to Chad. However Dr. Faraj Abdulaziz Najam, a Libyan specialist in Social Sciences and History, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Libyan tribes and clans that have genuine and demonstrable influence on the country number no more than 30 [tribes and family clans].

In a country that has lived under the brutal dictatorship of one man for more than forty years, namely Colonel Muammar Gaddafi –of the Gaddafi tribe – the majority of Libyans depend on their tribal connection in order to obtain their rights, and for protection, and even in order to find a job, particularly in the state apparatus. In a study conducted by Dr. Amal al-Obeidi at the University of Garyounis in Benghazi, it was revealed that the two largest and most influential Arab tribes in Libya originated from the Arab Peninsula, and these are the Beni Salim tribe that settled in Cyrenaica, the eastern coastal region of Libya, and the Beni Hilal that settled in western Libya around Tripoli. However other Libyan researchers and expert also revealed that around 15 percent of the Libyan population have no tribal affiliation whatsoever, being descendents of the Berber, Turkish, and other communities.

The degree of political allegiance to the ruling regime in Tripoli varies from one tribe to the next, particularly over the forty years that Gaddafi has been in power. The tribe which has the strongest, and longest, ties to the Gaddafi region is the Magariha tribe, who which has yet to announce their position on the bloody demonstrations that have been taking place across the country for the past week. Former Libyan Prime Minister Abdessalam Jalloud, widely regarded as Gaddafi's right-hand man for much of his reign, is a member of the Magariha tribe. Gaddafi's own tribe, the Gaddafi tribe, had historically not been an important tribe in Libya prior to Colonel Gaddafi's ascent to power, and the Gaddafi tribe was not known for playing a major role in Libya's right against colonialism over the last 200 years.

The leadership of the Magariha tribe acknowledges a debt of gratitude to Gaddafi and his regime for securing the return of one of the tribe's members, Abdel Baset al-Megrahi, from prison in Britain after he was convicted of being behind the Lockerbie bombing. However sources also told Asharq Al-Awsat that this has not prevented a number of youths of the Magariha tribe from participating – with members from other tribes – in the demonstrations and protests against Gaddafi's rule, especially in cities in eastern and southern Libya.

Experts say that the Magariha tribe is in the best position to carry out a coup against the Libyan leader, as many members of this tribe are in sensitive and senior positions of the Libyan government and security services. Whilst the Zawiya tribe is also in a strong position, and has threatened to stop the flow of oil into western Libya unless the authorities stop their deadly crackdown against the Libyan protestors.

Tribal influence in Libya is extremely important, particularly since the 1970s, with tribal affiliation being important with regards to obtaining employment in Libya's General People's Committees, as well as in the country's security apparatus.

The largest and most influential tribe in eastern Libya is the Misurata tribe, which takes its name from the Misurata district in northwestern Libya. The tribe has particularly strong influence in the cities of Benghazi and Darneh.

As for the Cyrenaica region, the most prominent tribe's in this area are the Kargala tribe, the Tawajeer tribe, and the Ramla tribe.

However the Misurata region has, over the past 50 years, become divided between those who belong to the traditional tribes that follow traditional tribal pursuits, and those who have given up this lifestyle and live in the region's urban centers.

Some of the more prominent tribes and families that have given up the Bedouin tribal culture in the Misurata region are: the el-Mahjoub clan, the Zamoura family, the Kawafi tribe, the Dababisa tribe, the Zawaiya tribe, the al-Sawalih tribe, and the al-Jarsha tribe.

As for the Kawar tribe, this is comprised of many sub-tribes of Arab descent, with some analysts saying that this tribe – which takes its name from the Kaouar region – is made up of as many as 15 smaller tribes.

The al-Awaqir tribe is centered in the Barqah region of Cyrenaica, and this tribe is well known for the prominent role that it played in the war against Ottoman and Italian colonialism. The al-Awaqir tribe

Libya's military: what does Gaddafi have left?

Summary of best estimates March 2, 2011

Three Solid Brigades of high morale troops from tribes affiliated with the

Forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi have recaptured a town in Libya's mostly rebel-held east, rebel military officers said on Wednesday, in an attempt to break the momentum of a popular rebellion against his 41-year-old rule.

Forces sent by the Libyan leader had seized back Marsa El Brega after violent clashes with rebels who had controlled the town 800 km (500 miles) east of the captial Tripoli, the rebel officers told Reuters.

"It's true. There was aerial bombardment of Brega and Gaddafi's forces have taken it," Mohamed Yousef, an officer in the town of Ajdabiyah which is about 75 km (47 miles) from Brega, told Reuters on Wednesday.

So, what's the exact data of Gaddafi's military muscle?

On paper, Libya's military has some 100,000 troops, more than 2,000 tanks, 374 aircraft and a navy and includes two patrol submarines. What Colonel Muammar Gaddafi actually has left to call on is a different matter.

Here are some details of Libya's armed forces, officially totaling around 76,000 active personnel, plus a reserve or people's militia of some 40,000.

has also historically played a prominent role in Libyan

politics, including during the previous era of the Libyan

monarchy as well as during Gaddafi's reign. Al-Awaqir

tribal members have held senior positions within

GROUND FORCES - REALITY:

Even before the uprising, Libya's military strength was seen as having been seriously undermined by sanctions and neglect although Western powers had just began to sell it weapons again. Much of the equipment is seen as poorly maintained or unusable, leaving it hard to estimate genuine numbers.

Analysts say Gaddafi tried to emasculate the regular army to avoid the emergence of commanders who might rival his immediate family, relying instead particularly on three loyal "regime protection" units often of his own tribe.

That leaves him with what most estimate to be some 10-12,000 loyal Libyan troops. The most reliable formation is seen to be the 32nd Brigade commanded by Gaddafi's son Khamis.

Repeated reports from witnesses, rights groups and others talk of African mercenaries flown in by Gaddafi to help strengthen his government. Exact numbers are impossible to obtain.

But analysts say the opposition lacks much in the way of command and control or even any form of centralized leadership. So far, opposition units have focused primarily on defending territory and have shown little appetite to advance.

That leaves loyalist forces trying to stem protest and perhaps regain lost territory in Libya's west around Tripoli. The key coastal city of Sirte between Tripoli and Benghazi is still under government control and the east effectively lost.

But experts warn the situation remains fluid.

"We underestimate the degree of loyalty in the security forces," warns Shashank Joshi, Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. "The defections appear to be patchwork and possibly along tribal lines. The units that matter, such as Khamis's 32nd Brigade, are holding together

members of this tribe played a prominent role in

fighting against Italian colonialism, particularly during the first half of the twentieth century.

As for the al-Mujabra tribe, this tribe has a strong presence south-west of Tripoli near the Al Jabal Al Gharbi district. Brigadier General Abu Bark Younis Jaber, Libyan head of the army, is also a prominent member of this tribe.

The Libyan Farjan tribe is centered west of the city Ajdabiya, and members of this tribe can be found in most of Libya's costal cities, including Sirte, Zilten, and Tripoli. The Fizan district, and the area around Tripoli, is the home to the Zawiya tribe, the Warfala tribe, the Magariha tribe, and the Maslata tribe. The majority of people in the city of Tripoli are affiliated to the Masrata tribe, such as the Muntasir clan, the Suni family, the Qadi family, the al-Bashti family, and many other prominent families.

• • • • • • • http://www.johnperkins.org/libya-its-not-about-oil-its-about-currency-and-loans/

NAVY - STRENGTH ON PAPER

Numbers: 8,000 including coast guard.

Submarines - 2 patrol submarines.

Surface combatants - 3

Patrol and coastal combatants - 14

NAVY - REALITY

Libya's two surviving Foxtrot class diesel submarines were delivered by the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, but outside experts have long questioned their reliability. According to IHS Jane's, in 2003 one was reported to be in dry dock and one was sea going -- although unlikely to be fully operational. It suggested both might already have been abandoned.

AIR FORCE - STRENGTH ON PAPER

Numbers: 18,000.

Combat capable aircraft - 374.

227 fighter aircraft -- 13-Mirage F1-ED, 94 MiG-25, 75 MiG-23 and 45 MiG-21.

Helicopters - 85 Support helicopters

35 Attack helicopters

l-5.jpg (50.04 KB)

2011-3-3 09:34

AIR FORCE - REALITY

Analysts estimate many of Libya's fast jets are in fact no longer airworthy. Gaddafi has so far also lost at least three aircraft in the course of this uprising with two jets defecting to Malta and the crew of a third ejecting over the desert rather than bomb opposition targets as ordered.

Occasional reports have also spoken of the use of helicopter gunships, fuelling calls for foreign powers to impose a no-fly zone.

OTHER FORCES:

There are also Air Defense Command forces which possess at least 216 surface-to-air missiles and 144 towed and 72 self propelled missiles.

Again, maintenance may be an issue. Most analysts believe Libya's armed forces would not be able to seriously threaten outside air forces attempting to enforce a no-fly zone, saying Gaddafi's defense capabilities probably lag behind those of Iraq's Saddam Hussein before the US-led 2003 invasion.

The BBC reported a British RAF Hercules transport aircraft evacuating foreign nationals came under small arms fire this week but was not seriously damaged. Some suggested the attack might have come from opposition forces who mistook the plane for one of Gaddafi's aircraft on a bombing raid.

CHEMICAL WEAPONS:

According to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), Libya destroyed its entire stockpile of chemical weapons munitions in early 2004 as part of a rapprochement with the West that also saw it abandon a nuclear program.

The OPCW told Reuters Libya did retain some 9.5 tons of deadly mustard gas at a secret desert location but no longer had the capability to deliver it.

Speaking to Qatar-based broadcaster Al Jazeera, Libya's former minister says beleaguered dictator may turn to the country's estimated 9.5 tons mustard gas stockpile.

Libyan Leader Muammar Gadhafi may resort to using biological and chemical weapons as a last resort amid the country's escalating and violent unrest, Al Jazeera quoted a former Libyan minister as saying on Friday.Former justice minister Mustafa Abdel Galil told the broadcaster Al Jazeera that Gaddafi had those weapons and would not hesitate to use them against civilians."At the end when he's really pressured, he can do anything. I think Gadhafi will burn everything left behind him," he warned late Thursday.

The regime is known to still possess substantial quantities of mustard gas. Gadhafi agreed in 2003 to dismantle Libya's nuclear and chemical weapons program, and has destroyed about 50% of its chemical weapons, but due to delays is still believed to have Mustard gas.